With InterTabac and NLE Poland coming up, the conversation in Europe is getting serious. It’s not really about new hardware anymore. It’s about how we’re all going to adapt to some massive changes, mostly driven by taxes and regulations.
Having watched this closely, here’s what we’re seeing.
Germany: The High-Cost Benchmark
The numbers are stark. With the e-liquid tax at €0.26/mL plus VAT, a 10ml bottle is now over €8.45 retail. It’s projected to hit €9.50+ next year. This is fundamentally killing the low-end market. The clear shift we see is away from disposables and back toward open systems and bottled liquid—where quality and consistency actually justify the price. The question for mixers and manufacturers is: can your product prove it’s worth that much?
Poland: Growth Under Pressure
It’s a booming market (€420M+) with incredible youth adoption (27% in 18-35), but it’s facing one of the highest tax trajectories in the EU. We’re looking at ~€0.42/mL by 2027, and they’re even taxing zero-nic and flavor concentrates. The opportunity is still there, but it’s in smart flavor innovation (dessert/beverage profiles are way up) and incredibly efficient operations to protect margins.
The Big Picture for Manufacturers
For those of us on the manufacturing side, this means two things are now non-negotiable:
Compliance as a Core Function: TPD isn’t a checklist anymore. It’s a full-time job managing documentation and ingredient screening.
Precision Engineering: To survive these taxes, you need absolute control over production. We’ve moved to MES (Manufacturing Execution Systems) to hit 0.1% dosing accuracy and full batch traceability. It’s the only way to guarantee consistency and avoid costly errors when every milliliter counts.
So, what’s your take?
For those in affected countries, how are you adjusting your recipes or business models?
Is the future in Europe primarily for open systems?
What are you hoping to learn at the shows this year?
I’m here to discuss and share what we’ve learned. If you want to dive deeper into the data, feel free to drop me a private message on the forum.
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