Coronavirus

(The Guardian, June 15, 2020):

Covid-19 can damage lungs of victims beyond recognition, expert says -
Organs of some who die after over a month in hospital
sustain ‘complete disruption’, peers told

Covid-19 can leave the lungs of people who died from the disease completely unrecognisable, a professor of cardiovascular science has told parliament. It created such massive damage in those who spent more than a month in hospital that it resulted in “complete disruption of the lung architecture”, said Prof Mauro Giacca of King’s College London.

In findings that he said showed the potential for “real problems” after survival, he told the Lords science and technology committee that he had studied the autopsies of patients who died in Italy after 30 to 40 days in intensive care and discovered large amounts of the virus persisting in lungs as well as highly unusual fused cells.

“What you find in the lungs of people who have stayed with the disease for more than a month before dying is something completely different from normal pneumonia, influenza or the Sars virus,” he said. “You see massive thrombosis. There is a complete disruption of the lung architecture - in some lights you can’t even distinguish that it used to be a lung. “There are large numbers of very big fused cells which are virus positive with as many as 10, 15 nuclei,” he said. “I am convinced this explains the unique pathology of Covid-19. This is not a disease caused by a virus which kills cells, which had profound implications for therapy.”

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(South China Morning Post, June 18, 2020):

There may be no immunity against Covid-19, new Wuhan study suggests -
Researchers behind the non-peer-reviewed paper ran antibody tests
on samples from hospital workers who were exposed to infected patients
at early stage of outbreak. Only 4 per cent of 23,000 had antibodies - but they estimated at least 25 per cent could have contracted the disease.

Humans may never develop immunity against Covid-19, according to new research on antibodies by Chinese and American scientists. Their conclusion was based on a study looking at whether hospital workers in Wuhan who were directly exposed to infected patients at the early stage of the outbreak had developed antibodies. The deadly new disease was first detected in the Chinese city late last year.

At least a quarter of the more than 23,000 samples tested could have been infected with the virus at some stage, according to the scientists. But only 4 per cent had developed antibodies as of April. “People are unlikely to produce long-lasting protective antibodies against this virus,” the researchers concluded in a non-peer-reviewed paper posted on preprint website medRxiv.org on Tuesday.

The referenced paper (June 16, 2020):

Prevalence of IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan -
implications for the ability to produce long-lasting protective antibodies
against SARS-CoV-2

Very few healthcare providers had IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, though a significant proportion of them had been infected with the virus. After SARS-CoV-2 infection, people are unlikely to produce long-lasting protective antibodies against this virus.

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(CNBC News, June 18, 2020):

Coronavirus antibodies may last only two to three months after infection,
study suggests

Coronavirus antibodies may last only two to three months after a person becomes infected with Covid-19, according to a new study published Thursday in “Nature”.

Researchers examined 37 asymptomatic people, those who never developed symptoms, in the Wanzhou District of China. They compared their antibody response to that of 37 people with symptoms. The researchers found people without symptoms had a weaker antibody response than those with symptoms.

Within eight weeks, 81% of the asymptomatic people saw a reduction in neutralizing antibodies, compared with 62% of symptomatic patients. Additionally, antibodies fell to undetectable levels in 40% of asymptomatic people, compared with 12.9% of symptomatic people, according to the study’s findings.

The referenced paper (June 18, 2020):

Clinical and immunological assessment of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections

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(New York Times, June 18, 2020):

You May Have Antibodies After Coronavirus Infection. But Not for Long -
Antibodies to the virus faded quickly in asymptomatic people, scientists reported. That does not mean immunity disappears.

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(Ars Technica, June 19, 2020):

Immunity to COVID-19 may wane just 2-3 months after infection, study suggests -
It may not mean the end of immunity,
but experts know little about immune responses.

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(New York Times, June 19, 2020):

Is the Coronavirus Death Tally Inflated? Here’s Why Experts Say No

public health experts say the method used to count deaths from a disease like Covid-19 is decades-old and some amount of uncertainty is … part of the process.

States rely on two systems in partnership with the C.D.C. In one system, called disease surveillance, public health staff members and health care workers track the outcomes of people with Covid-19 infections, producing a quick but imperfect public number. In the other system, doctors and coroners submit death certificates to vital records offices, which work with the C.D.C. to tally Covid-19 deaths to create the country’s official death toll from the disease.

The C.D.C. asked states to start reporting probable deaths in April, based on guidance from the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, which cited a lack of standardized Covid-19 surveillance among states. “If we only counted lab-confirmed deaths, we all agree that we will undercount the number of individuals that have died,” said Janet Hamilton, the executive director of the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists, a group that helps the C.D.C. define cases and deaths from disease.

During the coronavirus pandemic, states have been facing the challenge of providing immediate, accurate information, which is critical for informing policy decisions on when to loosen restrictions on businesses and social activities. This expectation has been complicated by limited testing and the lengthy process for investigating deaths, which can take weeks or even months. And in many states, data tracking systems are out of date and have been underfunded for years. “To keep up with a disease that moves with the speed and intensity of Covid-19, we absolutely need data modernization,” Ms. Hamilton said.

Most states still rely on mail, phone and fax for disease surveillance and a handful of states use paper systems for death certificates. These two systems, which can help states count deaths with more certainty, don’t typically talk to each other. So certain public health staff, already overtasked during the pandemic, have to reconcile differences manually. A growing number of states regularly report probable deaths along with lab-confirmed deaths. Other states track probable deaths internally, but do not yet include them in public reports.

Probable deaths are a small share of total deaths in the states that report them, most commonly about 5 percent to 10 percent. The range varies from less than 1 percent in some states up to about one-quarter of total deaths in others. Many probable deaths involve outbreaks at nursing homes, where some residents get tested and some do not. Even if states chose to not report probable deaths, or need more time to do so, mortality statisticians have said that most of these deaths will be counted in the death certificate data that states send to the C.D.C.’s National Center for Health Statistics.

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Source: “WHO Situation Report #140, June 8, 2020

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Source: “WHO Situation Report #151, June 19, 2020

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(Washington Post, June 19, 2020):

In countries keeping the coronavirus at bay,
experts watch U.S. case numbers with alarm

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/KEA63WN4DFFOHAQLKJMMO3W3UE.jpg

As coronavirus cases surge in the U.S. South and West, health experts in countries with falling case numbers are watching with a growing sense of alarm and disbelief, with many wondering why virus-stricken U.S. states continue to reopen and why the advice of scientists is often ignored.

Commentators and experts in Europe, where cases have continued to decline, voiced concerns over the state of the U.S. response. A headline on the website of Germany’s public broadcaster read: “Has the U.S. given up its fight against coronavirus?” Switzerland’s conservative Neue Zürcher Zeitung newspaper concluded, “U.S. increasingly accepts rising covid-19 numbers.”

Whereas the U.S. response to the crisis has at times appeared disconnected from American scientists’ publicly available findings, U.S. researchers’ conclusions informed the actions of foreign governments. … European researchers dispute that the U.S. government’s reliance on scientists to inform decision-making comes anywhere near the degree to which many European policymakers have relied on researchers. … several U.S. states have reopened despite rising case numbers.

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IHME Model COVID-19 predictions (for the USA, through October 1, 2020):


Source: https://covid19-projections.com

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(The Atlantic, June 14, 2020):

Fear of Public Transit Got Ahead of the Evidence -
Many have blamed subways and buses for coronavirus outbreaks,
but a growing body of research suggests otherwise.

In recent months, public-health experts in the United States have urged people to avoid crowds, enclosed spaces, and time spent in close contact with others -each a feature of a normally functioning transit system. The notion that subways themselves were seeding disease interrupted this social contract and also played to long-standing fears of urban spaces.

High-visibility cleaning and strong health-messaging campaigns, coupled with universal mask wearing, can help reassure passengers that they can return to a safe transit system. But more reassuring still is the lack of evidence that public-transit systems have played a role in COVID-19 transmission - and a growing body of research pointing in the other direction.

the MIT report didn’t trace any individual coronavirus case to a subway ride shared with an infected passenger. Instead, it overlaid the home ZIP codes of patients with the city subway map. Critics pilloried this methodology, noting that the report data showed that Manhattan’s dense, subway-rich neighborhoods had lower infection rates than car-dominated Staten Island.

Many of the highest-profile outbreaks occurred far from the nation’s buses and subways. Eleven percent of American coronavirus infections and one-third of deaths in the U.S. by early May had occurred in nursing homes. Hot spots appeared in March following a funeral in Albany, Georgia, and after a choir practice in Mount Vernon, Washington. In Nebraska, at least 3,000 meatpacking workers have tested positive for the virus. Another 6,000 cases and counting have ravaged Navajo communities in the Southwest.

Scientists have not yet determined precisely how effective masks are at reducing virus transmission - and how safe transit would be if everyone wore them - but even imperfect face coverings appear to confer benefits when most people wear them. Buses and trains where masked riders silently browse their phones may prove less risky than other settings where patrons are talking loudly, singing.

It’s difficult for nuances like these to break through when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tells American employers to encourage employees to avoid transit and to drive alone to work in offices, if possible. This message, which bewildered transit agencies scrambling to recover, fails to recognize the transportation realities of millions of Americans for whom owning and maintaining a car is simply unaffordable and impractical. The CDC guidance also fails as a matter of transportation and environmental policy: Shifting transit commuters to single-occupancy vehicles would asphyxiate cities with congestion and pollution, and reinforce the deadly outcomes of a century of car-focused urban planning that cities have been trying to escape.

The bigger health risk may not ultimately be the bus or subway car where you spend half an hour with a group of strangers than the places that you are traveling to and from. Researchers still have much to learn. What’s becoming clear is that, with appropriate precautions, transit riders can feel comfortable swiping their MetroCards again and agencies can start building the post-pandemic transit systems that cities and their residents want to see.

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(The Atlantic, June 21, 2020):

What a Negative COVID-19 Test Really Means -
We know very little about how reliable tests are for people who don’t feel sick.

How well COVID-19 tests work in people who feel healthy is still a key unknown of the pandemic. … as Americans weigh the risks of attending protests, rallies, birthday parties, dinners, and all the social gatherings that make up normal life, they will have to contend with the uncertainty that a negative test result does not rule out infection.

Understanding false negatives from COVID-19 tests is especially important because people who do not yet know that they’re sick play a major role in the spread of COVID-19. A study based on data in and around China suggests that 44 percent of transmission comes from presymptomatic cases.

It’s still unclear how good COVID-19 tests are at finding these presymptomatic cases, but the timing of the test matters. As soon as the coronavirus finds its way into a new host, it hijacks cells to copy itself. The amount of virus builds over this time, peaking at or right before symptom onset, which can take two to 14 days but usually takes an average of five or six. Accordingly, public-health authorities have advised getting tested about four days after exposure.

This is a reasonable recommendation, given the knowns, but surprisingly little data exists on how early COVID-19 tests can detect infection before symptom onset. One model using COVID-19 cases from seven previously published studies suggests that the false-negative rate is 100% on day one of exposure, which falls to 38% on day five (when symptoms on average appear) and then a minimum of 20% on day eight. But in combing the literature, the researchers behind this model found only one case where a patient was tested before feeling sick.

the FDA cautions that negative results do not rule out infection. It asks that asymptomatic tests include this statement: “Negative results must be considered in the context of an individual’s recent exposures, history, presence of clinical signs and symptoms consistent with COVID-19.” And this, in the face of imperfect COVID-19 tests, is key to interpreting a negative result. It depends on your probability of having COVID-19 in the first place.

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(South China Morning Post, June 21, 2020):

Coronavirus: recovered Chinese patients may be defenceless against
foreign mutation, study says -
Antibodies found in blood of people who have fought disease failed to stop D614G,
Chinese scientists say
Mutant form identified in genetic data of samples collected at Xinfadi food market
in Beijing where latest outbreak began

Recovered patients in China may still be vulnerable to a mutant form of the pathogen spreading overseas, a new study says. According to Professor Huang Ailong from Chongqing Medical University, there is an urgent need to determine what threat the mutation, known as D614G, poses to people who have recovered from a different form of the virus.

D614G began spreading in Europe in early February and by May was the dominant strain around the world, presenting in 70 per cent of sequenced samples in Europe and North America. Antibodies found in patients who had been infected with earlier forms of the pathogen failed to neutralise the mutant strain.

Since the latest coronavirus outbreak was reported at the Xinfadi wholesale food market in Beijing, 227 new infections have been confirmed and more than 2.3 million residents have been tested for Covid-19 in a bid to contain the spread. … whole genome sequencing data of samples from the first three patients have been released and they all contained the D614G mutation.

According to a report published last week by Scripps Research, a medical research facility in San Diego, the D614G mutation has the potential to increase the number of spike proteins on the coronavirus and boost its ability to infect human cells by a factor of 10. … that estimate was mostly based on computer modelling so questions remained over the possible increase in binding efficiency.

In the Chongqing study, the antibodies generated by three patients failed to suppress the mutated strain, with one sample showing almost zero effect. The researchers then tried to infect host cells with the mutant and normal strains. The mutant’s entry efficiency was 2.4 times higher.

One of the concerns now is that the prevalence of D614G will have a detrimental impact on vaccine development. Several Chinese vaccine candidates have entered the final phase of clinical trials, but they are based - like those under development in the United States and Europe- on the earliest strains of the coronavirus detected and sequenced in Wuhan.

A study by IBM’s AI medical team in April warned that the D614G mutation could reduce the effectiveness of vaccine programmes that target the virus’ spike protein. A separate study by a team of researchers in Serbia last month came to a similar conclusion. “Given the evolving nature of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA genome, antibody treatment and vaccine design might require further consideration to accommodate the D614G and other mutations that may affect the immunogenicity of the virus,” Huang said.

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I may be mistaken but wasn’t this the basis of the Salk vaccine against polio? A weakened live virus? If it is, this could be the path forward to immunizing against COVID19?

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For a moment, @Raven-Knightly… I thought you were talking French toast.
Now that would be a mighty fine vape for this afternoon, about to rain on me!
But no… I don’t have my ft recipe mixed up, so I lose out! :cry:

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It still looks like they’re grasping at straws. I’m not insulting the scientific community. Something this new and this widespread has to be creating a phenomenal amount of stress. I think it pacifies people too, to have low #'s constantly changing. So long as it looks like the scientific community is producing results, it’s ok for them to be even farther out of range than they appear to be.

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(The Guardian, June 25, 2020):

I’m a viral immunologist. Here’s what antibody tests for Covid-19 tell us -
From serology to T-cells, there’s still a lot we don’t know
about how immunity to coronavirus works

antibodies to Sars-CoV-2 show that you have been infected, although people with other recent coronavirus infections (which includes some common colds) may have cross-reactive antibodies, giving false positives. Serology tests vary in accuracy, but are more effective than so-called polymerise chain reaction (PCR) tests, which detect the presence of the virus itself. One reason is that they rely less on the skill of the person doing the sampling: antibodies in the blood are easier to detect than virus particles in nose or throat swabs. Such tests provide useful information about the way an infection has spread through a population. Newly infected people are unlikely to have detectable antibodies during the first few days, but most develop them after 1 to 3 weeks. Knowing how many have become infected helps us estimate the % of severe cases and deaths more accurately, and this tells us more about just how dangerous the new pathogen might be.

It also helps us identify high-risk groups, which can offer clues as to how the virus may be transmitted. Take Richter’s study, in which she tested 516 healthcare workers for Covid-19 antibodies: 34% of housekeeping staff came back positive compared with only 15% of staff working in intensive care. Such insights can be used to shield vulnerable groups with protective interventions. Antibodies also offer hope for future protection - but we have yet to fully characterise what immune protection from Covid-19 might consist of.

There are two major types of “memory” immune responses - changes to the body that mean you are able to recall a previous threat in order to mount a rapid protective response on reinfection. The first is driven by B cells, which produce antibodies. Vaccine research aims to generate potent, long-lasting antibodies that can protect us for life, but this is not always achieved. When antibodies wane, booster vaccinations can help. When viruses evolve to escape detection, like the fast-mutating flu, a newly designed vaccine is needed to stop them in their tracks.

The second cell type able to remember an infection is the T cell. T cells may be sufficient to control infection in the absence of antibodies, and act by organising immune defences (so-called “helper” T cells) or directly killing infected cells to restrict new virus production (cytotoxic T cells). T cell responses have been detected in most Covid-19 patients, and first-in-human vaccine trials have reported potent T cell activation. It is possible that T cells’ memory of Sars-CoV-2 may last longer than antibodies, as is the case in other coronaviruses.

Can you develop a T cell response without developing antibodies? That seems to be a possibility: a small study of patients and their families shows an unexpected 6 out of 8 family members who caught the virus at home had T cell responses but no detectable antibodies. Currently there isn’t an off-the-shelf test to measure our T cell responses, and they do not show up in antibody tests. But then even a positive antibody test, at this stage, doesn’t tell us all that much about protection. The duration of any potentially protective immunity remains to be determined.

a study that followed up 37 asymptomatic people who had positive PCR tests. This showed they had detectable levels of the virus for longer that those who had symptoms. Asymptomatic people are therefore likely to be more contagious. We also know that pre-symptomatic people, those in the early days following infection with Sars-CoV-2, are also highly contagious.

The first data emerging from vaccine studies show that animals can be protected from Sars-CoV-2 infection, and people do develop hallmarks of protective immunity. This hints that immunological memory is possible. The only way to know for sure, though, is to measure what happens when vaccination volunteers become infected.

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(The Guardian, June 25, 2020):

Antibody test accuracy lower during first 14 days of Covid-19 symptoms -
Review reports 30% of people picked up by tests in first week
against 90% in third week

Timing is crucial when it comes to antibody tests, experts have said, after a review of studies found their accuracy is far lower if used within the first fortnight of coronavirus symptoms rather than a week or two later. … At present, however, it is not clear what a positive antibody test means in terms of immunity, a key issue for “immunity passports”.

Now a team of researchers has delved into the issue of antibody tests, releasing a Cochrane review, considered to be the gold standard when it comes to weighing up evidence. The team examined 54 studies of antibody tests carried out on about 16,000 samples, more than half of which were from Covid-19 cases. All the studies were reported before the end of April, and most were carried out in Asia. The review highlights the fact that such studies were often problematic, with many failing to give clear details about the actual number of patients involved, or the test used. Several only including participants who actually had Covid-19. What’s more, 44 of the studies only trialled the antibody tests on people who had been admitted to hospital.

When carried out in the first week of a patient having symptoms only about 30% of people with Covid-19 were picked up by tests for two main types of antibodies, rising to about 70% between eight to 14 days after the onset of symptoms. From two weeks after symptoms began the figure was about 90%. Only 1% to 2% of people without Covid-19 received a positive result from antibody tests. But there is another issue. “We don’t really know very much about the accuracy of these antibody tests after the first five weeks of the disease,” said Deeks.

Eleanor Riley, a professor of immunology and infectious disease at the University of Edinburgh, who was not part of the review team, agreed that timing matters. “It is already very clear from this analysis that antibody testing early in the course of disease is unreliable and thus antibody tests cannot, and should not, replace virus detection for diagnosis of acute cases except where the time-course of disease is already well advanced,” she said. “The data also make it very clear that most, if not all, commercially available tests are not sufficiently accurate to warrant their use outside of the healthcare setting.”

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(Nature, June 22, 2020):

Mini organs reveal how the coronavirus ravages the body -
The virus can damage lung, liver and kidney tissue grown in the lab,
which might explain some severe COVID-19 complications in people.

“The beauty of organoids is that they resemble the true morphology of tissues,” says Thomas Efferth, a cell biologist at Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, Germany. … Organoids better demonstrate what SARS-CoV-2 does to human tissue, says Núria Montserrat, a stem-cell biologist at the Institute for Bioengineering of Catalonia in Barcelona, Spain. They can be grown to include multiple cell types, and take the shape of the original organ in weeks, says Montserrat. They’re also less expensive than animal models, and avoid the ethical concerns they pose.

But studies of SARS-CoV-2 in organoids have limitations because they do not reflect the crosstalk between organs that happens in the body, which means that findings will still need to be validated in animal models and clinical studies, says Bart Haagmans, a virologist at Erasmus MC in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

why lung cells are dying in patients remains a mystery - whether it’s because of damage caused by the virus, self-induced destruction, or through being gobbled up by immune cells. … From the lungs, SARS-CoV-2 can spread to other organs, but researchers weren’t sure how exactly the virus was travelling until Montserrat and her colleagues published a study in “Cell” in May 4. In experiments in organoids, also made from pluripotent stem cells, they showed that SARS-CoV-2 can infect the endothelium - the cells lining the blood vessels - which then allows viral particles to leak out into the blood and circulate around the body. … Studies in organoids suggest that once in the blood, the virus can directly infect several organs, including the kidney, say Penninger and Montserrat. … Another study in liver organoids found that the virus can infect and kill cells that contribute to bile production, known as cholangiocytes. … The virus can also replicate in the cells that line the small and large intestines, known as enterocytes, according to a “Science” study that used gut organoids 7.

More complex organoid systems are needed to better understand how the virus interacts with the body’s immune system to cause damage, say researchers. We are fairly confident now that the virus that causes COVID-19 can infect tissue outside the lung and significantly contribute to disease,” says Penninger. But more severe outcomes, such as kidney and heart damage, are probably due to a combination of viral infection and an excessive immune response, he says.

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(Nature, June 24, 2020):

Mounting clues suggest the coronavirus might trigger diabetes -
Evidence from tissue studies and some people with COVID-19
shows that the virus damages insulin-producing cells.

Zimmet is among a growing number of researchers who think that diabetes doesn’t just make people more vulnerable to the coronavirus, but that the virus might also trigger diabetes in some 3. “Diabetes itself is a pandemic just like the COVID-19 pandemic. The two pandemics could be clashing,” he says. … Researchers cite other evidence, too. Various viruses, including the one that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), have been linked with autoimmune conditions such as type 1 diabetes 6. And many organs involved in controlling blood sugar are rich in a protein called ACE2, which SARS-CoV-2 uses to infect cells 7. The latest clue comes from an experimental study in miniature lab-grown pancreases published last week 8 suggests that the virus might trigger diabetes by damaging the cells that control blood sugar.

But other researchers are cautious about such suggestions. … To establish a link, researchers need more robust evidence, says Abd Tahrani, a clinician-scientist at the University of Birmingham, UK. “Well-constructed epidemiological cohort studies and mechanistic and experimental studies are needed,” he says.

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(New York Times, June 26, 2020):

How the Coronavirus Short-Circuits the Immune System -
In a disturbing parallel to H.I.V., the coronavirus can cause
a depletion of important immune cells, recent studies found.

At the beginning of the pandemic, the coronavirus looked to be another respiratory illness. But the virus has turned out to affect not just the lungs, but the kidneys, the heart and the circulatory system - even, somehow, our senses of smell and taste. Now researchers have discovered yet another unpleasant surprise. In many patients hospitalized with the coronavirus, the immune system is threatened by a depletion of certain essential cells, suggesting eerie parallels with H.I.V.

Growing research points to “very complex immunological signatures of the virus,” said Dr. John Wherry, an immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania whose lab is taking a detailed look at the immune systems of Covid-19 patients.
In May, Dr. Wherry and his colleagues posted online a paper showing a range of immune system defects in severely ill patients, including a loss of virus-fighting T cells in parts of the body.

One of the most striking aberrations in Covid-19 patients, the investigators found, was a marked increase in levels of a molecule called IP10, which sends T cells to areas of the body where they are needed. Ordinarily, IP10 levels are only briefly elevated while T cells are dispatched. But in Covid-19 patients - as was the case in patients with SARS and MERS, also caused by coronaviruses - IP10 levels go up and stay up. That may create chaotic signaling in the body … The result is that the body may be signaling T cells almost at random, confusing the immune response. Some T cells are prepared to destroy the viruses but seem undermined, behaving aberrantly. Many T cells apparently die, and so the body’s reserves are depleted - particularly in those over age 40, in whom the thymus gland, the organ that generates new T cells, has become less efficient.

The new research may help answer another pressing question: Why is it so rare for a child to get sick from the coronavirus? Children have highly active thymus glands, the source of new T cells. That may allow them to stay ahead of the virus, making new T cells faster than the virus can destroy them. In older adults, the thymus does not function as well.

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(Annals of Neurology, June 7, 2020):

COVID‐19: A Global Threat to the Nervous System

Initially thought to be restricted to the respiratory system, we now understand that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) also involves multiple other organs, including the central and peripheral nervous system. The number of recognized neurologic manifestations of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection is … accumulating. These may result from a variety of mechanisms, including virus‐induced hyperinflammatory and hypercoagulable states, direct virus infection of the central nervous system (CNS), and postinfectious immune mediated processes. Example of COVID‐19 CNS disease include encephalopathy, encephalitis, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, meningitis, ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, venous sinus thrombosis, and endothelialitis. In the peripheral nervous system, COVID‐19 is associated with dysfunction of smell and taste, muscle injury, the Guillain‐Barre syndrome, and variants. Due to worldwide distribution and multifactorial pathogenic mechanisms, COVID‐19 poses a global threat to the entire nervous system.

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(Dana G Smith, on Medium, May 18, 2020):

The Long-Term Health Impacts of Being Infected With the Coronavirus -
Experts take clues from other infections and predict
what the future might hold for Covid-19 survivors

There is growing concern about the potential long-term consequences of Covid-19, with reports of symptoms lingering for weeks and even months. Survivors want to know how long these afflictions will last or if they’ll ever completely go away, not to mention what might be waiting around the corner in the months and years to come.

Lungs: One of the primary concerns after a respiratory infection like Covid-19 is whether lung function will be permanently altered. … there is a risk of scarring and more permanent lung damage in people who are hospitalized and ventilated. … Evidence from the first SARS virus bears this out. … At three years post-infection, 10 out of 46 people still had reduced lung capacity, but only one person did after 15 years. However, nearly 40% of people experienced another type of lung dysfunction involving the transfer of oxygen and carbon dioxide between the lung and the blood, which never went away.

Heart: … one of the deadliest effects of Covid-19 that has emerged is its impact on the heart. By some estimates, 20% to 30% of hospitalized patients experience heart problems, and cardiovascular complications contribute to 40% of all deaths. … Cardiovascular complications are not unique to Covid-19. Many viral infections can cause myocarditis - the technical name for inflammation of the heart - which is typically thought to be a side effect of the body’s inflammatory immune response. … There is also a known link between heart disease and respiratory infections, with a two- to six-fold increase in the risk for heart attack and stroke up to a month after having the flu, although the risk is highest in the first week.

Brain: There is mounting evidence that SARS-CoV-2 also impacts the brain. In a study of 214 Covid-19 patients, one-third experienced neurological symptoms, including dizziness, headache, and cognitive impairment. Scientists aren’t clear, however, what’s behind the symptoms - it could be that the virus is directly infecting neurons, it could be the inflammatory immune response, or it could be damage from oxygen deprivation.

Immune system: Another consideration is how SARS-CoV-2 could impact a person’s risk for other infections. In a recent study, researchers found that 20% of people with Covid-19 were also infected with other viruses, including influenza, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus. Typically, the presence of one virus decreases a person’s risk of another infection because the immune system is already activated. At the root of the issue is a type of protein called interferon that’s released with the first wave of the immune response and interferes with the virus’s ability to replicate. … One reason the novel coronavirus is so pernicious is that it appears to suppress these interferons, meaning that not only is the Covid-19 infection worse, but there may also be a heightened risk for future infections. … While the research on the novel coronavirus’s impact on interferons is preliminary, SARS and MERS had a similar effect on the immune system. There are several cases of people infected with MERS also contracting influenza and tuberculosis.
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(STAT, June 26, 2020):

Watch: It’s not just the lungs:
The Covid-19 virus attacks like no other ‘respiratory’ infection

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(Reuters, June 26, 2020):

Scientists just beginning to understand many health problems caused by COV-19

Scientists are only starting to grasp the vast array of health problems caused by the novel coronavirus, some of which may have lingering effects on patients and health systems for years to come, according to doctors, infectious disease experts.

“We thought this was only a respiratory virus. Turns out, it goes after the pancreas. It goes after the heart. It goes after the liver, the brain, the kidney and other organs. We didn’t appreciate that in the beginning,” said Dr. Eric Topol, a cardiologist and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California.

In addition to respiratory distress, patients with COVID-19 can experience blood clotting disorders that can lead to strokes, and extreme inflammation that attacks multiple organ systems. The virus can also cause neurological complications that range from headache, dizziness, loss of taste or smell to seizures, confusion. And recovery can be slow, incomplete and costly, with a huge impact on quality of life.

The broad and diverse manifestations of COVID-19 are somewhat unique, said Dr. Sadiya Khan, a cardiologist at Northwestern Medicine in Chicago. With influenza, people with underlying heart conditions are also at higher risk of complications, Khan said. What is surprising about this virus is the extent of the complications occurring outside the lungs.

Dr. Igor Koralnik, chief of neuro-infectious diseases at Northwestern Medicine, reviewed current scientific literature and found about half of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 had neurological complications, such as dizziness, decreased alertness, difficulty concentrating, disorders of smell and taste, seizures, strokes, weakness and muscle pain.

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(New York Times, June 27, 2020):

Actual Coronavirus Infections Vastly Undercounted, C.D.C. Data Shows -
The prevalence of infections is more than 10 times higher
than the counted number of cases in six regions of the United States.

The number of coronavirus infections in many parts of the United States is more than 10 times higher than the reported rate, according to data released on Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The analysis is part of a wide-ranging set of surveys started by the C.D.C. to estimate how widely the virus has spread. … “This study underscores that there are probably a lot of people infected without knowing it, likely because they have mild or asymptomatic infection,” said Dr. Havers, who led C.D.C. study. “But those people could still spread it to others.”

The numbers indicate that even in areas hit hard by the virus, an overwhelming majority of people have not yet been infected, said Scott Hensley, a viral immunologist at the Univ. of Pennsylvania who was not involved in the research. "Many of us are sitting ducks who are still susceptible to second waves,” he said.

The difference between recorded infections and the actual prevalence in the data was highest in Missouri, where about 2.65 percent of the population was infected with the virus as of April 26, although many people might not have felt sick. This number is about 24 times the reported rate: nearly 162,000 compared with the 6,800 thought to have been infected by then. The results confirm what some scientists have warned about for months: that without wider testing, scores of infected people go undetected and circulate the virus.

Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the C.D.C., hinted at this trend on Thursday during a call with reporters. “Our best estimate right now is for every case reported there were actually 10 other infections,” Dr. Redfield said. The source for his claim was unclear at that time. The C.D.C. later posted the data on its website and on MedRxiv, a repository for scientific results … not yet … vetted by peer review.

The referenced paper (June 26, 2020):

Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Six Sites in the United States, March 23-May 3, 2020

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(The Guardian, June 28, 2020):

The coronavirus ‘long-haulers’ show how little we still know -
My Covid-19 symptoms lasted for months.
As an infectious disease specialist, I know the importance of widespread testing

During the early stages of the outbreak, I came down with mild Covid-19-like symptoms. … I became what we now call a Covid-19 “long-hauler” - a patient with initially mild symptoms of likely Covid-19, who would go on to experience a range of sometimes severe symptoms for a prolonged period of time.

The Covid Symptom Study, undertaken by King’s College London, has revealed that 10% of all Covid-19 patients report symptoms for at least three weeks. Surprisingly, people in this so-called Covid tail are on average younger. Most report having been previously healthy, and show relatively mild symptoms in the initial phase of illness. But they continue to experience symptoms such as fatigue, headache, cough, shortness of breath, chest pain, increased heart rates and gastrointestinal and neurological symptoms for weeks or even months following the initial symptoms; often these symptoms might come and go repeatedly.

Though physically I still struggle with lung problems, as a doctor and a scientist I struggle mostly with the lack of knowledge about this condition. We currently have no understanding at all of the biological mechanisms causing these prolonged symptoms. Theoretically, they may be the result of ongoing or resurgent viral replication - which would be important to know since this would imply prolonged infectiousness as well. Perhaps, however, as observed in more severe cases of coronavirus, the virus may trigger an aberrant immune response, resulting in ongoing inflammation throughout the body, which may last far beyond clearance of the virus. A third alternative, as observed commonly following bacterial pneumonia, is that the coronavirus causes more extensive damage of lungs, heart and other organ systems than suggested by the initial symptoms, which simply requires more time to recover.

Without this knowledge, we don’t know if long-haulers are infectious for prolonged periods, or whether they are at risk of experiencing severe complications, and certainly not whether treatment might reduce the duration of their problems. Left unattended, these patients may even develop irreversible damage leading to chronic illnesses.

Until we develop this medical and scientific knowledge, healthcare professionals won’t have the guidance needed to treat these long-haulers. … a high number of long-haulers have organised themselves in online peer support groups. Depending on the country of origin, many report not having received any medical support during their illness, or being dismissed repeatedly. Others report being brushed off by healthcare professionals, misdiagnosed and in receipt of conflicting advice. They also experienced a wide range of stigma - friends keeping their distance for fear they might be infectious, sympathy draining because they “should” have recovered by now, employers losing patience with number of days taken off work.

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(Washington Post, June 29, 2020):

This coronavirus mutation has taken over the world.
Scientists are trying to understand why.

When the first coronavirus cases in Chicago appeared in January, they bore the same genetic signatures as a germ that emerged in China weeks before. … A change in the virus was appearing again and again. This mutation, associated with outbreaks in Europe and New York, eventually took over the city. By May, it was found in 95 percent of all the genomes Ozer sequenced. … Of the approximately 50,000 genomes of the new virus that researchers worldwide have uploaded to a shared database, about 70 percent carry the mutation, officially designated D614G but known more familiarly to scientists as “G.”

At least four laboratory experiments suggest that the mutation makes the virus more infectious, although none of that work has been peer-reviewed. Another unpublished study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory asserts that patients with the G variant actually have more virus in their bodies, making them more likely to spread it. The mutation doesn’t appear to make people sicker, but a growing number of scientists worry that it has made the virus more contagious.

Studying both versions of the gene using a proxy virus in a petri dish of human cells, Choe and her colleagues found that viruses with the G variant had more spike proteins, and the outer parts of those proteins were less likely to break off. This made the virus approximately 10 times more infectious in the lab experiment. The mutation does not seem to lead to worse outcomes in patients. Nor did it alter the virus’s response to antibodies from patients who had the D variant, Choe said, suggesting that vaccines being developed based on the original version of the virus will be effective against the new strain. … the New York team offers a different explanation as to why the variant is so infectious. Whereas Choe’s study proposes that the mutation made the spike protein more stable, Sanjana said experiments in the past two weeks, not yet made public, suggest that the improvement is actually in the infection process. He hypothesized that the G variant is more efficient at beginning the process of invading the human cell and taking over its reproductive machinery. Luban, who has also been experimenting with the D614G mutation, has been drawn to a third possibility: His experiments suggest that the mutation allows the spike protein to change shape as it attaches to the ACE2 receptor, improving its ability to fuse to the host cell.

Although these experiments are compelling, they’re not conclusive, said Kristian Andersen, a Scripps virologist not involved in any of the studies. The scientists need to figure out why they’ve identified different mechanisms for the same effect. All the studies still have to pass peer review, and they have to be reproduced using the real version of the virus.

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