I did see that one, but not here. That is an interesting observation. However, the mortality rate will differ from country to country, and the more overloaded the country’s healthcare system is, the higher the mortality rate will be. The 0.66% I feel is a good guess - Certainly better than a lot of other very high guesses. For my monitoring I am using 0.8% and the numbers they give me is still scary (the lower mortality rate, the more are infected to produce the death numbers we’re seeing)…
Updated estimated infected based on deaths and a mortality rate of 0.8% for USA:
Without considering me an uncaring, evil bastard, give me your thoughts about this…
If that 0.66% MR plays out globally in the end -which is obviously still pure speculation here- is that percentage justification for the incredible disruption that’s occurred from all the containment measures? I don’t want this to spin off into anything political or even into the realm of morality debates. I’m just wondering about everyone’s thoughts about if a pandemic that nets a 0.66% MR should have been handled this ‘aggressively’. We will be feeling the effects of the quarantining from an economical and societal standpoint for many years to come, with some things changing forever.
Everyone has solutions till they cause another problem. Me? If you eliminated single use plastic bags it puts a hardship on pet owners. You may laugh but I use those single use bags to pick up after my dog. I have filled them a quarter full in a three day time period from my yard alone. I carry them on our walks to pick up after her. Can’t do that with paper bags.
Hey, I relate. I use plastic bags to dump kitty litter into. I also use them for kitchen garbage. But if I can cut back by not using them when unnecessary I’d like to. Plus I can’t stand the feel of plastic grocery bags anyway. They drive me nuts the same way saran wrap does.
Fortunately I’m surrounded by woods. So, when the dogs do their duty, one of the kids’ assigned chores is to chuck it into the trees. However, the clever little pooper scooper is made almost entirely of plastic…
Still can’t figure out all this speculation. I live in the third largest city in the US. We get daily updates on infection and death rates. I have been doing the math. Mortality rates are running at 0.086% + - go the last three weeks. Mortality will lag infection by about a week and three weeks time is a small sample size.
Yeah and so is my kitty scooper. Plastic has it’s place in this world. It lasts a long time and that’s good for things you want to last. But those damn shopping bags. Luckily, my cat is a total nature boy (came to me as a stray) and he prefers the outdoors for his business matters. I don’t know where the heck he goes because I never see it. Now that he’s older and his kidneys are a bit compromised he can’t hold it in all night. Hence the once a day scoop. I can’t complain.
They have so many used. I line my kitchen garbage can with them. I keep a second one in the garbage to catch coffee grounds, fats from meat, chicken innards even my dog won’t eat.
(The Irish Times, March 24, 2020): The search for ‘patient zero’
There is an intense ongoing investigation to find out exactly when Covid-19 emerged in humans. It’s important to identify how epidemics emerge, not least the current pandemic, and especially how it is spread. As suspected, it was in circulation a lot earlier than initially indicated.
A 55-year-old individual from Hubei province in China may have been the first person to have contracted Covid-19, according to the South China Morning Post. This dates back to November 17th, more than a month earlier than doctors noted cases in Wuhan in late December.
Authorities suspected the virus stemmed from something sold at a “wet (seafood) market” in the city. It’s now clear some infected people had no connection to that location. That included one of the earliest cases from December 1st; researchers reported in The Lancet.
Scientists now suspect SARS-CoV-2 (its medical name) originated in a bat and somehow hopped to another animal, possibly the pangolin, which then passed it on to humans.
That is precisely it. Maybe the mortality rate is 0.66% (still 6.6 times more deadly than the flu) - but that rate is only because we implemented those extreme measures - if we run around like everything is normal the system would crash and we would see the mortality rate sky rocket to 10% maybe even 20%… I agree, I’ve had time to think a bit about the consequences, and they are still almost unfathomable, globally
Inevitably, when this is all over, and time begins to soften the edges of this event, there will be people saying there’s no way it was worth it. Time is a cruel mistress.
